Orange Theory: Jaquan Carlos adds pick-and-roll dynamism to Syracuse
The Hofstra transfer brings a different play style to the point guard position for Syracuse
Hurricane Helene Relief Efforts
Before we get to basketball, a moment for something of greater significance and sadness.
I love my home state of North Carolina. Born and raised, I take great pride in being from here. Of course, the past week has been brutal for the western part of the state and much of the Southeast, with the damage brought on by Hurricane Helene. Raleigh is my home, and I’m lucky to have personally been spared the destruction. However, it’s heartbreaking to see, read and hear about the loss of life and suffering up in Western NC. It’s beyond anything I could imagine. The cities and mountains and trees and communities and rivers and bridges and people of this region are some of the best in the world. It’s a special place. I’ve loved my trips up those mountains — whether it’s been to the High Country or the Highlands — and I look forward to returning, again.
My continued thoughts are with those affected by this horrific storm. If you’re able, please consider donating money or time to helping those in need — if you haven’t already. Here are a few options. Please, feel free to suggest others, too.
Back to Basketball: Jaquan Carlos and Syracuse
It will be a challenge for Syracuse to replace Judah Mintz, a powerful engine of offense for the past two seasons. Over his two seasons of college ball, Mintz posted a 29 percent usage rate and an assist rate of 26.5 percent, while attempting 11.9 free throws per 100 possessions. His ability to draw fouls greatly boosted his overall efficiency. During the 2023-24 season, Mintz ranked Top 55 nationally in usage rate (30.6%), fouls drawn per 40 minutes (6.7) and free throw attempt rate (61.5%).
When examining the pick-and-rolls he ran as a sophomore, Mintz drew a shooting foul on 17.7 percent of his screen-roll possessions, the second highest percentage nationally among players with 200+ possessions, per Synergy Sports. Syracuse’s offense needed Mintz, too. The Orange scored under 1.0 points per possession in the minutes with Mintz on the bench, per CBB Analytics.
(It would’ve been nice to see more of the Quardir Copeland, JJ Starling, Chris Bell, Justin Taylor and Maliq Brown lineup, which played only 35 minutes all season, according to CBB Analytics. Syracuse was +5 in those minutes).
Despite the productivity (1,123 points and 449 FTA 64 games), Mintz had some of his own limitations, which put a cap of sorts on Syracuse’s offense. He needed the ball to make plays; in return, Syracuse asked a lot out of Mintz from a creation standpoint. The Orange shot more 3s (33.8 percent of their field goal attempts came from beyond the arc) with Mintz running the show during the first season under Adrian Autry — compared to Jim Boeheim’s final year. Syracuse, of course, played far more man-to-man defense under Autry, too. The initial returns were fine: 20 wins, Top 85 nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies, no NCAA Tournament.
Syracuse was actually outscored by three points with Mintz on the floor this season, according to CBB Analytics, scoring just over 1.08 points per possession.
Mintz struggled to shoot from deep: 22.2 percent on pull-up 3-point attempts. Moreover, Mintz isn’t a willing long-range shooter: less than 20 percent of his field goal attempts last season came from beyond the arc. Instead, Mintz settled for a lot of tough, contested off-dribble 2-point attempts. These are inefficient shots and not exactly a strong suit of Mintz, who connected on only 32.1 percent of his dribble jumpers (37 2P%), per Synergy.
This is more anecdotal, but it also felt as though his need to chase or sell for fouls took Syracuse’s offense out of rhythm. At the least, it occasionally hindered the transition defense when he didn’t sprint back.
Meet the New Guy: Jaquan Carlos
Meanwhile, Hofstra transfer Jaquan Carlos is another high-volume pick-and-roll engine, albeit with a different type of play style, one that could better serve some of Syracuse’s secondary players. He doesn’t score at the same level as Mintz, nor does he get to the free throw line as frequently (2.9 fouls drawn per 40 minutes). That said, he plays with good pace, he can score off the bounce, and he can really pass.
Carlos shot a career-best 47.3 on his 2-point attempts last season — with 93 percent of his 2-point makes coming unassisted, per Bart Torvik’s shot data. At 6-feet tall, he’ll never be an amazing rim finisher. Carlos has yet to record a dunk during a college game. It’s still important for Carlos to reliably generate paint touches, though, which he can do.
This is a cool design from Hofstra — “Thru” action for Carlos into a “Strong” alignment: staggered down screens for Tyler Thomas (23), coming out of the left corner. As Thomas comes off the screens, he flips the ball back to Carlos, who then dribbles into another screen with Jacob Fritz (11). Kyle Filipwoski (30) jumped out at Thomas when he exited the double screens, so he’s out of position when Carlos turns the corner. It looks like there’s a line to the rim, but even as Carlos tries to go reverse, Filipowski is able to easily swat his shot.
According to Synergy Sports, though, Carlos shot 56.5 percent at the rim, which is pretty good given his constraints. He has the speed and handle to go north-south in the half-court offense.
Hofstra runs this sidelines-out-of-bounds (SOB) play from a Box set into “Ram” action: screen-for-the-screener pick-and-roll. Darlinstone Dubar (1) sets a screen for German Plotnikov (25), who lifts up and sets the ball screen for Carlos. Delaware’s center defends the ball screen up at the level and in poor position — running out at Carlos with heavy feet. Carlos uses the screen and easily turns the corner for a layup at the rim.
Carlos isn’t a reliable off-dribble 3-point shooter: 7-of-29 on pull-up 3-point attempts (24.1 3P%) last season, which is low volume and efficiency. However, he’s an excellent midrange shooter and he’s especially comfortable pulling up from around the elbows. Carlos shot 44.7 percent on pull-up 2-point jumpers last season, per Synergy.
When Carlos sees drop coverage — with the on-ball defender fighting over the top (instead of going under) and the big man defender below the level of the screen — the elbow jumper is there all day, Chris Paul style.
Hofstra runs more action via its Thru series: Carlos passes to the left wing and cuts through the lane to the right wing, where he’ll get the ball back. Carlos takes the dribble-handoff (DHO) and drives across “77” ball screen (double high screens). As he dribbles off the final screen, Delaware’s center is in drop coverage — with his feet on the CAA logo as Carlos hits the elbow.
Now, why was the screen defender that far off Carlos, leaving him with plenty of rim to get up a jumper?
Well, it’s an overcorrection of sorts. From the prior possession: the screen defender is closer to the level and it results in an open dunk for Fritz, the roll man.
Once again, it’s the same Thru 77 action for Carlos. This time, though, the screen defender is further up, closer to the level of the screen. With all of the screening action, no help defender tags Fritz. And with two on the ball against Carlos — the screen defender — Fritz has an open lane to roll down.
From the middle of the floor this time, Hofstra runs for Ram pick-and-roll for Carlos. Fritz screens for Dubar who lifts to set a run-out ball screen. The on-ball defender fights over Dubar’s screen, but future Syracuse teammate Jyare Davis (13) stays with Dubar — therefore there’s no help defender when Carlos dribbles off. As a result, Carlos gets good look from the elbow.
Here’s similar action at Duke, although on this Ram look Dubar doesn’t fully set the ball screen for Carlos. Instead, he ghosts out to the left wing, which allows Jeremy Roach (3) to stick with Carlos. With Roach applying ball pressure, Carlos is able to create separation with a pull-back crossover and maaaaybe a bit of a push-off. Once again, it’s an elbow jumper.
On-ball defenders will go under screens against Carlos, especially since they aren’t too worried about his pull-up 3. This tactic allows the defense to keep the ball in front and, hopefully, keep Carlos out of the lane. When that happens, the offense can counter by having the screener flip his angle after the initial screen and set another ball screen for Carlos — going in the other direction.
This is a nice re-screen effort from Fritz — something guys like Eddie Lampkin Jr. and Davis, like pick-and-roll partners with Carlos, should keep in mind this season. The defender goes under on the second screen, too, but with the flip the angle of the screen is lower. Instead of dribbling off around the 3-point line, Carlos is now in a more palatable range at the elbow.
Pass the eye exam
While the scoring is nothing to sneeze at, ultimately, Carlos wants to pass the ball and set dudes up. The scoring is a tool to keep defenses honest and open up the playmaking reads. With his pass-first nature, combined with the ability to read and manipulate defenses, Carlos is a rather compelling primary initiator.
Synergy charts pick-and-roll possessions used by a ball handler — plays that end with a shot, turnover or shooting foul drawn — and possessions when the ball handler passes to a teammate who “uses” the possessions. To be clear, Carlos and Mintz were both steady pick-and-conductors last season; however, Carlos was a passer instead of the player using the possession on a larger share of these recorded/charted opportunities. That fits with the eye test: he wants to get others involved.
Carlos Pick-and-roll - Total
374 Possessions, 378 Points = 1.01 points per possession
As a Passer: 228 possessions (61% of total possessions), 257 points: 1.13 PPP
Mintz Pick-and-roll - Total
452 possessions, 439 points = 0.97 points per possession
As a Passer: 209 possessions (46% of total possessions), 225 points = 1.08 PPP
Here’s that same Box set SOB play into Ram pick-and-roll for Carlos. As Fritz sets the ball screen, Delaware’s center is near the level of the screen but his first step is backwards; he sinks closer to the paint. Carlos geeks the defender out, though, by using a lefty hang dribble while coming off the screen — it looks like he’s going to take a pull-up jumper. This bit of manipulation goes the center to lunge out at Carlos, thus leaving the lane wide open for Fritz.
Carlos sees all of this happen and delivers a catchable pocket pass, which results in the dunk.
The 6-foot Carlos shows vision and patience when conducting screen-roll action. If the defense guards the screen with two defenders on the ball — keeping the big man defender closer to the level of the screen — Carlos will scan the back line of the defense. If no help defender tags the roller, Carlos will find that player and fit passes into tight windows, even when that requires passing over the top of two taller defenders.
With larger defenders all over the floor — hands and long limbs flying around looking to deflect a pass — Carlos must be able to anticipate opportunities, which flows from his command of the offense and overall court mapping (i.e. knowing where guys are on the floor). Carlos gets a little step-up screen against Delaware’s 2-3 zone defense, knowing that Dubar is down in the dunker spot. He catches every back-line defender with their hands down and fits a pass into Dubar for another dunk.
The processing is quick and smooth. When it’s time to get the ball out, there’s no hesitation. The Blue Hens run the same SOB play agains Northeastern: Box set into Ram pick-and-roll for Carlos. Northeastern puts two on the ball, Fritz is open in space and Carlos delivers.
On the road against Duke, Hofstra runs Iverson action into Ram Spain pick-and-roll (screen-for-the-screener action in a stack screen-roll look) with Carlos initiating. Jared McCain tries to “weak” the screen and funnel Carlos to his left hand, while Kyle Filipowski is below the level of the screen but high up the floor — a full step above the arc. Tyler Thomas (23) leaks out of the stack back-pick action for Jacob Fritz (11), which pulls Jaylen Blakes (2) beyond the arc. Filipowski stays with Carlos for a couple of dribbles and weak-side low man TJ Power (12) doesn’t come off Darlinstone Dubar (1) in the weak-side corner to tag Fritz. Carlos sees this through the traffic and hits his man.
Skip to my Cuse
When the back-line help defender pull in, Carlos goes to his next progression. As he scans the entire floor, the veteran point guard will look to hit a skip pass to the weak side. Here’s some empty-corner pick-and-roll at Duke, with aggressively defending up at the level. The Blue Devils have two on the ball. Fritz rolls to the rim as Khalil Farmer (3) shakes back up being the play, running across the baseline and up the left wing. Roach stunts like he’ll tag Fritz, although he doesn’t really make any contact, and this time Power comes off the corner to help in the paint. You can actually see Carlos go through his reads: there’s traffic in the paint with Fritz, hit Dubar (40 3P%) on the skip.
As Hofstra resets and runs late-clock spread pick-and-roll with Carlos and Fritz, Northeastern is in drop coverage. In theory, the Huskies should be able to defend this screen-roll 2-on-2 and let the off-ball defender stay home on shooters. When Carlos turns the corner, though, the center defender doesn’t drop deep enough — Fritz is open on the short-roll dive. This causes the off-ball corner defender to lean into and hang in the paint for a half-second. That’s enough time for Carlos to snap a skip pass to Plotnikov, who attacks the closeout and scores.
Probe for answers
With his patience on the ball, Carlos also does a nice job keeping his dribble alive, probing defenses and looking for kick-out options. Carlos will turn the corner and drive across the grain of the defense, looking for cutters and kick-out options. This really comes alive when Carlos gets an opposing big man switched on him.
For instance, Carlos initiates drag pick-and-roll on this possession with Silas Sunday (30), who slips the screens. Even without an actual screen taking place, Northeaster switches the action — leaving its center 1-on-1 against Carlos. That’s a problem, folks. After his initial drive is thwarted, Carlos doesn’t settle for a bad shot early in the clock, nor does he let the defender off the hook. Carlos drives again; this time he goes baseline, which draws another defender and forces Northeastern’s defensive shell to rotate. This open the kick-out to the opposite corner.
Here’s another early ball screen action for Carlos, resulting in another switch. As Carlos drives downhill to the basket, the switch defender stays with him. Instead of trying a tough shot at the rim against a larger defender, Carlos starts left but drives under the rim. Delaware’s defense doesn’t break, but the maneuver of going under the rim causes it to bend in an awkward fashion. With his defender turned and eyeing Carlos, Dubar relocates from the corner up to the right wing. Carlos kicks out for another triple.
This is another drag pick-and-roll possession — now with an empty corner on the left side. Carlos, however, opts to reject the screen and drive baseline. As he goes left, Carlos pulls in a help defender, who leaves Plotnikov in the corner. To cover the corner, another weak-side defender must slide down from the wing to deny a pass to Plotnikov, leaving Thomas open on the wing.
Carlos is a step ahead, and a third rotation — someone to cover on Thomas — doesn’t happen. The kick-out is on time and Thomas drills an open 3.
Guys like Chris Bell (41.7 3P% on 12.6 3PA per 100 possessions), JJ Starling (39.3 3P% on catch-and-shoot 3PA last season), Donnie Freeman, and Lucas Taylor, a wing shooter with good range, should all benefit from playing next to Carlos. Whether it’s the skip passes against a rotating defense or a kick-out as Carlos attacks a mismatch, the spot-up shooters on this roster will get good looks.
There will be a learning curve; the competition and level of athletes on a night-to-night basis will bump up for Carlos. As a 6-foot, 160-pound point guard who doesn’t really shoot 3s, there’s a chance Carlos struggles to sustain his pass-happy success rate in the ACC. I’m betting on him, though.
Off ball but always within reach
There’s a lot Carlos can do aside from operating pick-and-roll, though, and I’m not even referring to his defense, which is very disruptive at the point of attack. As creative as Carlos is as a primary initiator, he’s able to play off ball, too, which helps in terms of making him more scalable.
During his time at Hofstra, Carlos worked alongside two high-usage scorers: Dubar (22.5% usage rate, 17.8 points per game) and Thomas (30.9% usage rate, 22.5 points per game), now playing professionally in Hungary. Dubar is an effective isolation and post-up scorer. Thomas was a productive isolation and pick-and-roll scorer. When those guys had the ball, Carlos demonstrated good off-ball movement and shot making, a willingness to attack a titled defense and quick decision-making.
Carlos shot 37.5 percent on catch-and-shoots 3-pointers last season, which is notable, while also scoring 1.03 points per spot-up possession. Here, Thomas runs drag pick-and-roll and turns the corner left, which collapses the defense. Carlos relocates down the left corner, staying in the passing window for Thomas, and drills a kick-out 3.
Dubar has a smaller player switched onto him in this post-up possession, with a taller frontcourt player switched out on Carlos, who is one pass away. Delaware doesn’t hart double Dubar, but the Blue Hens show help, which creates the kick-out to Carlos. After a shot fake, Carlos drives middle — before spinning back right to his elbow jumper.
From earlier in the season, it’s another Dubar post-up. This time, the double team comes and Dubar puts the defense into rotation with a skip pass to Carlos. The point guard could look to step into a 3 here, but he’s a step ahead of the defense, again. As a help defender rotates off the corner, Carlos makes the quick extra pass to create an open corner attempt for Thomas.
The shot fake is a weapon for Carlos. He makes enough shots to force hard closeouts, which creates these types of catch-and-go opportunities vs. a bent defense. When Carlos gets downhill, his unselfishness and vision can come alive as he looks to build off the advantage and make the next pass.
Northeastern is in a zone look on this possession as Thomas holds the ball in the left corner. The top of the zone sinks down, which leaves Carlos open around the right slot. Thomas throws a nice skip pass to Carlos, which puts the defense in rotation. Carlos does an excellent job building off this small bit of advantage; he ball fakes and attacks the closeout, gets to the second line of defenders and sprays back out for an open Thomas 3.
It’s another possession of zone defense from Northeastern. Once again, Carlos is able to split the top of it and get into a gap. The back line is lifted and Carlos finds an open Dubar in the dunker spot for a finish.
With Starling, Taylor and Elijah Moore, Syracuse has other guards who will also want to create with the ball in their hands. Similar to Dubar, Freeman is an intriguing isolation scorer, one that could command extra attention in the mid-post. Plus, frontcourt playmakers Lampkin and Davis should work as handoff hubs in advantageous areas of the floor. In these cases, a player like Carlos, who is willing to move and be locked in as an off-ball player, is really important.
Syracuse has the pieces to get opposing defenses in the blender this season. Carlos will be an integral initiator in those sequences; however, his ability to play off the ball means that defenders can’t ignore him when he’s spotted up along the perimeter.
There’s a recipe here for more ball movement and side-to-side actions that bend defenses and a create advantages.