Pass the mic: How Michael O'Connell runs NC State's transition offense
More on the power of playing fast and passing ahead of the defense
The ball moves faster than the player. This isn’t just an old adage passed around summertime basketball camps; it’s physics. As Mike D’Antoni would say, the ball has energy. Those who embrace this principle have the ability to make everyone who shares the floor with them better at the game.
During his first season with NC State, Michael O’Connell hit one of the biggest shots in program history: a 3-pointer off the glass at the buzzer to force overtime in the ACC Tournament semifinals vs. Virginia. It was an iconic moment, one that immortalized O’Connell and served as a catalyst for the Final Four run.
However, that shot tells only a portion of his season-long impact. With his willingness to pass ahead and play with tempo, O’Connell was a steady-hand facilitator for a Top 50 offense, one that improved as the season progressed.
A quarterback and his receivers
One of the defining characteristics of NC State’s offense under Kevin Keatts has been its low turnover rate; this is one of the benefits of a pick-and-roll heavy half-court offense, and in each of the last three seasons the Pack have ranked Top 12 nationally in turnover rate. During his final season at UNC Wilmington, the Seahawks led the nation with the lowest turnover rate, according to KenPom: 13.9 percent. The 2023-24 Wolfpack were the third Keatts team to post a turnover rate under 14.0 percent.
2016-17: 13.9 percent
2021-22: 14.5 percent
2022-23: 13.3 percent
2023-24: 13.8 percent
NC State is trying to win the possession game: more field goal attempts, fewer turnovers. It’s simple: take more shots than your opponent while also reducing the amount of transition defense possessions you need to play.
O’Connell is willing to play fast and take chances in the open floor. Including his first three seasons at Stanford, O’Connell has a career turnover rate of 22.3 percent. However, his willingness to be on the ball and operate a pass-first type of game allows his teammates to play to their strengths: catch and finish.
Only two other players in NC State’s rotation posted individual turnover rates above 15.0 percent, including one notable high-usage post-up hub: DJ Burns (15.5 percent) and Jayden Taylor (15.7 percent).
While DJ Horne scored plenty of self-created buckets — 0.86 points per pick-and-roll possession, 1.07 points per isolation possession — he benefitted greatly from playing next to O’Connell. Horne scored 1.27 points per spot-up possession (47.5 3P%), according to Synergy Sports. Horne’s spot-up efficiency ranked in the 96th percentile nationally and was third best among ACC players with 100+ possessions, behind only Jeremy Roach and Blake Hinson.
From after the first media timeout vs. Texas Tech, NC State runs some “Ram” or “Wedge” pick-and-roll action: Ben Middlebrooks screens for Horne, who runs out toward O’Connell as if he’s going to set a ball screen — before “ghosting” out. Middlebrooks follows with a screen for MOC; Texas Tech defends up at the level, which puts the defense into rotation. As Joe Toussaint (6) slides down to tag Middlebrooks on the dive, Horne shakes open for a relocation 3.
Bend the defense, find the open man.
No one on NC State’s roster assisted more Horne buckets than O’Connell, although Burns was close: 37 assists from O’Connell and 35 courtesy of Burns, per CBB Analytics.
During the 2023-24 season, NC State made 285 3-pointers, 113 (39.6 percent) of which were assisted by either O’Connell (55) or Burns (58).
On this possession, NC State runs another variation of “Ram/Wedge” pick-and-roll — screen-the-screener action into a ball screen for MOC and a go-to for NC State vs. Virginia’s hard hedge. As Jake Groves (34) hedges, O’Connell drags his dribble out to the right. Morsell leaks back up, which forces Taine Murray (10) up the floor and makes Isaac McKneely (11) tag Burns on the dive. This leaves Jayden Taylor open.
That’s a perfect rhythm skip pass from O’Connell, too, right into Taylor’s shooting pocket.
After a missed shot, O’Connell shows his feel when he sees an opportunity and puts Boston College’s transition defense in a bad position. NC State doesn’t really have numbers here, with Burns and Mo Diarra trailing, but MOC pushes the ball, which forces help. This, in turn, leaves Horne wide open for a corner 3.
The moments when O’Connell decides to hit the Turbo Button in the open floor are excellent for creating some of the most efficient shots in basketball, including spot-up 3s on the break. According to Synergy, State shot 42.9 percent on its 3-point attempts in transition.
Here’s a similar possession at Louisville. O’Connell scoops up a loose ball and triggers a 3-on-2 fast break. He makes the defense to commit to his drive and kicks out for another Horne 3.
From the BYU game in Vegas, with the score tied: it’s a grab-and-go opportunity for O’Connell, who pulls down a rebound and immediately hits the gas. O’Connell beats almost everyone down the floor, collapses the defense and sprays out for a Casey Morsell triple in the corner.
O’Connell’s passing helped generate money shots for NC State: spot-up 3s and rim finishes. According to CBB Analytics, O’Connell averaged 1.5 assists per 40 minutes where the shooter scored at the rim (within 4.5 feet of the basket), which was No. 1 on the roster.
Jared McCain (0) is an excellent player, but O’Connell’s pace and vision catch the Duke guard behind the action. Like a receiver that has a step or two on a cornerback, Horne breaks free and O’Connell hits ahead for a layup.
MOC-up: On/Off Numbers
At times, NC State’s offense can feel a little rote, a little predictable — a downside of the high volume of pick-and-roll and post-up possessions, although the Burns post-ups helped facilitate some off-ball cut movement. This is why the pace and randomness of MOC’s game feels like such a boon.
In the half court, O’Connell is a willing mover. Once he gets off the ball, he starts darting around as a cutter.
Here, NC State flows into an early post-up for Burns. As soon as O’Connell throws the entry passes, Louisville doubles — with the help coming from one pass away, Ty-Laur Johnson (4), the man assigned to MOC. O’Connell immediately cuts to the lane and finishes around length at the rim — working some nice, random give-and-go action with the Big Fella.
It certainly does’t hurt O’Connell’s overall impact that he shot well above his career averages at Stanford: 56.2 percent true shooting (48.2 TS% at Stanford) and 50.5 percent on 2-point attempts (44.2 2P% at Stanford). O’Connell shot with greater frequency and accuracy from distance, too: 37.5 percent on 3-point attempts (30.1 3P% at Stanford) with over 43 percent of his field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc (30.5 percent 3-point attempt rate at Stanford).
Put it all together and it’s no real surprise that NC State’s offense was better with O’Connell on the floor last season, scoring 7 more points per 100 possessions and assisting on over half of their field goals (50.1 percent).
O’Connell on
Offensive rating: 114.3 points per 100 possessions
55.9 percent true shooting, 51.5 2P%, 34.8 3P%
50.1 percent assist rate, 1.49 assist-to-TOV ratio, 11.9 percent TOV rate
67 possessions per 40 minutes
O’Connell off
Offensive rating: 107.3 points per 100 possessions
52.9 percent true shooting, 48.1 2P%, 33.9 3P%
44.3 percent assist rate, 1.18 assist-to-TOV ration
66.9 possessions per 40 minutes
During the NC State’s postseason run, starting with the ACC Tournament and running through Final Four, the Pack were +94 in those 10 games with O’Connell on the floor (339 minutes), scoring 117.8 points per 100 possessions, according to Pivot Analysis.
Be quick but don’t hurry
Regardless of your own level of hoops, even if you’re just a casual pick-up player at the YMCA, there’s an important quality of O’Connell’s game you should recognize: it looks like it would be a lot of fun to play basketball with him.
He’s a connective passer. Run the floor and O’Connell will find you for easy points. Once again, the ball has energy.
Diarra plays with incredible verve; he’ll always go full tilt. However, it’s never a bad idea to reward the 4s and 5s for running the floor. This is something that Brandon Huntley-Hatfield should note for next season.
With MOC helping push the pace, NC State scored 1.12 points per transition possession last season, a Top 3 number among ACC programs — behind only Virginia Tech (1.21 PPP) and Duke (1.15 PPP).
If there’s an opportunity to get the ball out for an easy bucket, there’s no hesitation. This is great hustle from Middlebrooks, who generates the turnover and forces a loose-ball situation. MOC scoops it up and 2-3 seconds later it’s a Taylor dunk.
According to Synergy Sports, the Wolfpack scored 1.66 points per transition possession that O’Connell used or assisted on, which ranked in the 95th percentile nationally. (The “assist” part of that sample skews overall efficiency number — given that it’s including a set of possessions that ended with a made basket. That said, it’s still impressive.)
When the bigs run the floor, it compresses the defense and helps open up 3-point opportunities off of hit-ahead looks. Here, Diarra runs the floor, which pulls in Quinten Post (12) and helps create the open wing 3 for Morsell, off a great find from O’Connell.
Dennis Parker Jr. does well to box out and earn a contest rebound. O’Connell receives the outlet from DPJ, takes one dribble and pings this pass ahead to Taylor for a poorly-contested 3.
When the guards sprint out and fill the wings/corners, it flattens out the defense, amplifying the numerical advantage. Guys like Paul McNeil Jr., Dontrez Styles, Marcus Hill, and Mike James should be ready to run.
There’s no rim run ahead of this pass, but it’s another excellent hit-ahead from MOC — finding Taylor for a wing 3 against BC’s scrambled transition defense. This pass is the advantage creation in the situation.
O’Connell finished second on NC State’s roster with an assist rate of 21.2 percent, meaning when he was on the floor MOC assisted on 21.2 percent of the team’s made field goals. Of course, Burns led the way: 25.8 percent assist rate. Burns and O’Connell each eclipsed 100+ total assists last season, too: 130 for MOC and 117 for Burns.
In doing so, those two joined a group of only five other players to hit the 100-assist mark in a single season under Keatts at NC State: Markell Johnson, Braxton Beverly, Dereon Seabron, Jarkel Joiner and Terquavion Smith. If MOC hits the benchmark again next season, he’ll join Johnson as the only two players to hit the century mark in multiple seasons.
Don’t drag your feet, defense
Another great action for semi-transition or secondary offense is drag pick-and-roll: early-offense ball screens that occur before the defense can set up.
These have long been a piece of the puzzle for Keatts, but here you can see O’Connell call/point for Middlebrooks to flow into drag action. O’Connell turns the corner and catches PJ Hall planted in the paint — skipping wide for a Diarra corner 3.
In the Sweet 16 win over Marquette, NC State scored on three separate possessions with these early-offense/step-up angled screens from Middlebrooks, including this screen-roll dime from O’Connell.
As Marquette switches, Middlebrooks gets inside leverage and rolls hard.
Sometimes the drag action can be a little more flowing and random. From the win over Miami: Diarra never comes to a complete stop to set a pick, but his hustle and movement work just as well. O’Connell uses Diarra’s sprint as a de facto screen, dribbling back against the grain and getting to his pull-up jumper in the midrange.
A similar thing happens here against Abilene Christian. As NC State gets into its secondary offense, O’Connell dribbles left, across the paths of Diarra and Middlebrooks, which creates some separation and a catch-and-go opportunity for Morsell.
Secondary Break
When the initial transition opportunity is contained, NC State can flow into its secondary offense, something the Pack showcased more of last season. O’Connell is good at organizing this as well.
The Citadel bottles up MOC here, but he doesn’t force anything. Instead, he checks down to Burns, the trail man, who initiates “Zoom” action (pindown from Diarra into the dribble-handoff) with Morsell.
Morsell turns the corner, touches the paint and kick to O’Connell for 3.
On this possession, the secondary action flows from a Horne handoff with O’Connell into a ball screen from Diarra (“Miami” action). O’Connell gets two on the ball and makes a good decision — hitting Diarra for an open pop 3.
With a good deal of roster turnover, including crucial playmakers like Horne and Burns, O’Connell will be needed even more next season to initiate offense, generate open looks and make good decisions with the ball.