Elbow Room: How Wake Forest played off the high post vs. Michigan

The Demon Deacons go through the Elbow at the Greensboro Coliseum

For those of us who are tasked with doing the dishes on a daily basis, we’ve all experienced the frustration of trying to clean a baking sheet or a pan that has some unforgiving residue from that night’s dinner caked to the bottom. Grab the sponge and scrub with all of your might and you may be able to chisel it off. “It ain’t much, but it’s honest work.” Eventually, you’ll get the job done, but it may require more elbow grease than you anticipated.

Wake Forest is playing hard, and that effort has shined through on the defensive end. The offense, however, isn’t quite running at full hum — despite the 3-0 record. I’m not saying that Steve Forbes needs to apply baking soda to his offense, but currently, the Demon Deacons are shooting under 26 percent on their 3-point attempts, and they have more turnovers (44) than assists (40).

It’s just three games. The season is long. These metrics will improve. More basketball will be played and more data will be collected. Hunter Sallis (1-of-11 3PA) and Parker Friedrichsen (2-of-13 3PA) will get hot from deep. It’s only a matter of time. Wake Forest is still in the process of replacing the live-ball speed of Boopie Miller (currently averaging 20.7 points and 7.7 assists per game on 50/41/73 shooting splits at SMU) and the multi-level playmaking of frontcourt mismatch piece Andrew Carr. However, the offense, so far, has struggled to get north-south and consistently compromise opposing defenses.

According to Bart Torvik’s shot data, only 32.2 percent of Wake Forest’s field goal attempts are “close” 2-point attempts. Without that rim pressure component, it’s easier to keep the ball in front and force Wake Forest to take tough 2s. The shot-making of Sallis (54.5 2P%) is a crucial remedy: 6-of-11 on 2-point attempts and 7 free throw attempts vs. Michigan. More is needed, though.

If Ty-Laur Johnson could keep his turnovers in check, his pace and creativity with the basketball would be a tremendous boon. This potential development would also allow Sallis to work off the ball more, too. Right now, though, the Deacs must work with the tools they have. In order to grab a neutral-site victory over Michigan, a Top 30 KenPom team, Wake Forest found success playing through the elbows on offense — along with a few other things. Let’s dive in.

Elbow Split

With the arrival of Efton Reid last season, Wake Forest has turned its center to be a playmaker. One of the to-go sets with Reid in the high post features him operating at the elbow with Cam Hildreth and Sallis engaged in split action.

Wake Forest will start in its usual Horns/Stack Out series, which features Sallis handling up top while Reid and Hildreth start the possession next to one another near the nail. Hildreth starts the action by picking a side and popping out. Next, Sallis will toss an entry pass to Reid at the elbow and cut in the direction of Hildreth. Before Sallis and Hildreth come together, though, Sallis will split cut to the rim and Hildreth will sprint into a handoff with Reid.

If nothing is available off that initial movement, Sallis can return back up the floor, get a handoff from Reid and flow into spread pick-and-roll. When Roddy Gayle gets knocked to the floor by Reid’s screen, Danny Wolf (who looks like a future pro) tries to help and lunge out at Sallis, which puts two defenders on the ball and leaves Reid open on the dive. Sallis squeezes the pass in, but Sam Walters blocks the rim finish from behind.

Here’s a similar setup vs. Coppin State, although on this split action Hildreth cuts to the basket while Sallis stays high. Coppin State works to deny the handoff, so Sallis cuts into space on the right wing. Reid passes to Sallis, which forces a defender to stunt hard in his direction, leaving Omaha Biliew open for a corner 3.

Later in the first half, Wake Forest has a smaller lineup on the floor: Biliew as the de facto 5, with four other guards/wings. Hildreth enters the ball to Biliew and engages in a little split maneuver with Friedrichsen — twirling around and flowing back into a handoff with Biliew. Wolf switches out nicely and gets Hildreth in front of him. Hildreth puts his head down and tries to get to the rim, but this is a tough shot and Tre Donaldson swats it away.

Ultimately, the process here is good; Wake Forest involves multiple skilled offensive players in the action. It’s a way to scramble the defense and get into some random movement — with screen-roll as a secondary progression. This type of action — this blend — will be important for Wake Forest.

Stepping Out

Another play out of this Horns/Stack Out series features a step-up screen from the center for the primary ball handler. The off-ball guard at the elbow will pop out to the wing and the center will follow by lifting up and setting a flat ball screen, which should allow the driver to go in either direction, left or right.

During the Michigan game, the ball handlers went in the went opposite direction of the wing where the guard popped out on, which is often the case.

With Hildreth sliding to the right wing, Sallis starts left off Reid’s screen on this late-game possession. Michigan center Vladislav Goldin is in drop coverage, playing a few feet below the level of the screen. This means Sallis has room to operate in the midrange — a comfort zone of his. Reid’s screen creates some separation between Sallis and Gayle. Once Sallis has Gayle on his hip, he keeps him there — snaking back across the lane as Reid dives and seals.

Here’s the same look in the first half: Horns Out Step Pick-and-roll. Hildreth pops right, Sallis drives left and snakes back right — with Wolf in drop coverage. Sallis misses the jumper, but Reid cleans it up with 1 of his 6 offensive rebounds.

Hildreth also had a few opportunities to handle in this formation. It’s back to the small-ball lineup on this possession: Juke Harris, who was excellent in this game, cuts out, Biliew sets the step-up screen and Hildreth gets to his Barkley-style drive, which sucks in the defense and creates the kick-out for a Biliew triple.

Later in the first half, it’s the same setup, although this time Tre’Von Spillers is spaced to the right corner and Harris pops left while the Hildreth-Biliew screen-roll goes right. Similar to Sallis, Hildreth gets his defender on his hip and scores in the paint vs. Michigan’s drop.

Here’s Wake Forest and Sallis running this same Horns Out Step Pick-and-roll action last season. This time, Sallis drives to the same side as Hildreth’s pop.

Flex Schedule

Under Steve Forbes, Wake Forest has occasionally mixed elements of the Flex offense into different sets — often with a baseline flex screen near the weak-side box.

Back during the 2022-23 season, I referred to this as Wake Forest’s “Horns Thru Flex Rip” action. It’s a Horns set with Carr setting the Flex screen for Damari Monsanto, who races off that to set a back (“Rip”) screen for Davion Bradford.

Back to the Michigan game: it’s another Horns set with Flex action and Reid operating at the elbow — albeit with a few other differences. The possession starts with an entry pass to Hildreth at the left elbow. As Sallis cuts down below, under the rim, Hildreth moves the ball to Reid at the right elbow. Now, Wake Forest is in its Flex action: Sallis looks ready to set a Flex screen for Harris at the weak-side box while Hildreth is there to set the screen-the-screener pindown for Sallis.

The Demon Deacons try play off that look by having Sallis slip the screen for Harris and Hildreth slip the next screen for Sallis. It’s good action — essentially slipping the usual screen-the-screener exchange — but the spacing is cluttered and none of the cutters are open. So, Reid pulls it out and flows into pick-and-roll with Sallis. Michigan’s drop coverage does well to bottle up Sallis, but Harris makes a big-time, heady play: with his defender’s eyes focused on Sallis, Harris cuts down from the wing into the paint and finishes with a dunk.

Harris was all over the floor with hustle plays in this game. Really promising stuff: 3-of-4 FGA at the rim, 2 offensive rebounds, 1 steal and 1 block. He was impactful and playable during high-leverage moments in a big game. He’s just a freshman, but Wake Forest has something with Harris.

Flare for the dramatic

This was a creative after-timeout (ATO) play from Wake Forest during the second half. Once again, the Deacs emerge in their small-ball lineup: Biliew at the 5, along with four guards/wings. Wake Forest starts in another Horns set. Hildreth pops to the left slot while Davin Cosby cuts out to the right wing — with Biliew stationed under him in the weak-side corner. As Sallis passes and cuts through, Cosby lifts as if he’ll engage in split action with Sallis or flow into a handoff with Hildreth. Instead, Cosby jabs and cuts back out off a flare screen from Biliew, which pulls LJ Cason out of the gap (chasing Cosby off the flare) and Goldin a few steps up from the rim — thus opening the paint up for Hildreth.

Hildreth is able to use his strength and turn the corner on Gayle for the rim finish.

Spillers Over

Wake Forest is +14 in 39 minutes with its starting lineup on the floor this season, according to CBB Analytics. That same group is back on the court for this second half possession. Once again, it’s a Horns/Stack Out alignment — with Hildreth cutting to the right wing and Reid setting up shop at the left elbow. After Sallis passes off to Reid, he cuts down and gets ready to set a down screen for Friedrichsen. Instead of running Zoom action here — a pindown screen into a handoff — Wake Forest uses a little “Gaggle” action, which is a twirl-like maneuver with Friedrichsen cutting off the first screen (instead of using the staggered) and Sallis looping back up into the handoff.

As always, there’s a weak-side exchange from Wake Forest, with Hildreth cutting to the corner and Spillers lifting to the wing. As Sallis drives, Wolf sags well off Spillers to help, which creates the open kick-out opportunity.

After attempting only 1 3-pointer last year with Appalachian State (0-of-1 3PA), Spillers has hit 4 3-pointers already this season. To optimize the offensive viability of the Spillers-Reid frontcourt, it’s massive that Spillers continue to take and make his spot-up 3s.

Dream Weaver

Wake Forest frequently went to its Weave pick-and-roll action against Michigan, too. With the high weave, Wake Forest moves the defense around some before getting into spread pick-and-roll with Sallis and Reid. Again, when Sallis sees drop coverage, he’s going to look to snake the ball screen and get to his pull-up jumper.

Sallis has connected on 7 long 2-pointers this season, per Bart Torvik’s shot data, all of which have come unassisted.

Here’s a similar look for Sallis later in the first half. On this possession, though, the more mobile Wolf is up at the level of the screen to meet Sallis. Walters peels in off of Biliew on the left wing to tag Reid while Wolf recovers back. Sallis is surrounded by 3 Wolverines, but he still manages to knife his way closer to the rim — for a tough 2-point finish.

This second half Weave set requires a little more time to develop and it comes with Spillers, the 4, as the screener. Reid is down low in the dunker spot. Wolf is again at the level of the screen, but Sallis is able to create space while getting away with a bit of a push against Gayle.

The backdoor is still open

Back in July, I wrote about how Wake Forest likes to target Sallis on backdoor cut set plays following a timeout. Sallis is such a talented off-ball player; he’s dangerous as a scorer coming off of screens and handoffs. It’s natural for the player marking him to worry about defending these off-ball actions — fighting over screens or being on his top side to make it more difficult to catch and score. Forbes and his staff will leverage this defensive attention and have Sallis fake a step or two up the floor before sending him backdoor on designed actions.

A defense can be on the lookout for these play types, but it’s hard to sniff out once the pieces start moving around on the floor. Here’s an ATO set from the first half. It’s a 5-out look with Biliew initiating. Biliew hands the ball off to Hildreth as Spillers lifts up for what looks like an angled step-up screen. Hildreth rejects the screen and dribbles right — as Friedrichsen cuts down from the right wing and back through the lane. This empties out that side of the floor for Sallis. Cason ball watches as Hildreth drives right. Sallis takes one step up the floor before planting his left foot and cutting backdoor for the lob dunk.

Hedge your bets

Finally, let’s take a quick look at Wake Forest’s defense, which played well vs. Michigan and is showing some intriuging early-season adjustments from a year ago.

During the 2023-24 season, I wrote extensively on how Wake Forest primarily used Reid in drop coverage to defend pick-and-rolls. Wake Forest mixed coverages at times, especially later in the season, but the drop was the base defense. This approach is analytically-friendly and used by some of the more numbers-driven programs in the country: Creighton, Purdue, High Point and Alabama — among others. In theory, drop coverage allows the defense to guard ball screens 2-on-2 and stay out of rotation. It’s designed to protect the rim (keeping a 7-footer in front of it) and force the driver into taking tough off-dribble 2s, while the other 3 defenders stay home on shooters — thus reducing the volume of catch-and-shoot 3s.

Wake Forest finished the 2023-24 season Top 60 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Opponents assisted on only 42.7 percent of their field goals (No. 20 nationally) and only 35.5 percent of their field goal attempts were of the 3-point variety (No. 108 in the country). The Demon Deacons also ranked Top 50 nationally in defensive rebound rate.

According to CBB Analytics, with Reid and Carr on the floor together (635 minutes), Wake Forest’s defense allowed only 11.7 field goal attempts per 40 minutes at the rim (within 4.5 feet), which ranked in the 99th percentile nationally.

Conversely, those lineups forced opponents to attempt a combined 23.7 field goals per 40 minutes from in the paint (but outside the restricted area) or from the midrange (between the paint in the 3-point line), which translated to 42 percent of the field goals defended by Wake Forest. This is where a team can win the math: shoots 3s on offense and force your opponent to shoot 2s when they have the ball.

There can be tradeoffs with this approach, obviously. Defenses can’t take away everything. Pull-up shooters, like NC State’s DJ Horne last year in Raleigh, can get hot and cook vs. the drop coverage. Plus, it’s not inherently designed to create turnovers. As such, Wake Forest’s defense ranked outside the Top 220 nationally in turnover rate (16.4 percent) and steal rate (8.5 percent).

Well, this season Wake Forest — at least at the start — is mixing up its coverage and frequently using Reid to hedge ball screens. This approach brings Reid out of the paint and much further up the floor.

It also requires guys to rotate on the back side. Carr, an excellent help defender, is no longer in Winston-Salem, but Spillers is long, rangy and active defensively (5.6 percent block rate). So, too, is Biliew. Those guys can help put out fires behind the play as Reid hedges out and recovers back.

Reid hedges this screen as Goldin slips to the rim. Hildreth, the defensive low-man, rotates off the dunker spot to chip on Goldin. Reid recovers and Hildreth gets back to his man. Spillers bottles up Gayle on the drive, nearly forcing a turnover. As the possession turns into scramble mode, Spillers with a good contest/alter on a runner late in the clock.

So far, Wake Forest has allowed a far greater percentage of opponent field goal attempts to come from beyond the arc: 46.7 percent 3-point attempt rate. However, turnover rate is way up (22.0 percent), as is steal rate (12.2 percent).

Here’s the game-defining defensive possession, which resulted in a turnover for the Demon Deacons. Reid hedges multiple ball screens. During Reid’s second hedge, Gayle loses his footing on the floor of the Greensboro Coliseum. As the ball slips out, Spillers grabs it and is off to the races for a dunk that puts Wake Forest up two possessions with 41 seconds left.

Spillers main coverage when he’s playing the 4 and involved in the action is to switch. When the 4 and 5 screen for one another, Reid and Spillers will also switch those actions. Reid played some drop coverage vs. Coppin State and in the exhibition game vs. Alabama, but for now he’s being asked to cover more ground and hedge out. This will be a trend worth monitoring.