Unlocking Paul McNeil's Potential at NC State

McNeil will return to Raleigh for his sophomore season as one of the more intriguing upside bets in the ACC — more on his 3-point shooing, on-ball creation, connective passing and on-off numbers

With the 2024–25 college basketball season in the books, it’s officially Transfer Portal and NBA Draft season. That also means the start of Split The Action's offseason coverage, which will feature player evaluations and scouting reports — particularly focused on players returning to or transferring into ACC programs — along with in-depth pieces on team-building and roster construction.

To kick things off, we’re starting with a familiar face in the ACC for 2025–26: Paul McNeil Jr., who returns to NC State amid a coaching change and enters his sophomore season with high expectations.

The Jumper

Before the Duke–NC State matchup on Jan. 27, I was on the floor at Cameron Indoor Stadium, watching both teams go through warm-ups. It’s almost always unwise to draw too many conclusions from a pregame routine — there are no defenders, no stakes— but McNeil caught my eye. It was hard to look away as he got into a rhythm, drilling catch-and-shoot three-pointers while gliding around the arc. He went on to miss both of his three-point attempts during the game, but seeing him up close left an impression: this guy can really shoot the basketball.

McNeil has a cannon for a jump shot — a smooth, repeatable delivery with a high release point, plenty of back-spin rotation. When his feet are squared to the rim, he shoots an easy ball with impressive range. There’s already a lot to like, but as McNeil gets stronger and builds out his base, he’ll be able extend that range even further.

As a freshman, McNeil went 16-of-45 from beyond the arc (35.6 3P%), with three-point attempts making up 60 percent of his total shots. It’s a small sample, but according to CBB Analytics, he connected on 8-of-19 (42.1 3P%) from 25+ feet.

Under Kevin Keatts, McNeil was primarily used as an off-ball floor-spacer. Despite limited playing time, he showed good feel for the game, especially with his ability to relocate along the perimeter and position himself as a kick-out option on the weak side.

McNeil’s off-ball movement — filling the corners, wings and slots — should pair well with the up-tempo, pass-first mentality of guard Quadir Copeland, who followed Will Wade from McNeese State to NC State.

Copeland is a savvy playmaker who thrives in transition and knows how to effectively operate in drag ball screen actions.

According to CBB Analytics, Copeland averaged 4.3 assists on three-pointers per 40 minutes this season at McNeese State. In his junior year, 95 percent of his assists led to either rim finishes or three-pointers. This was a feature of his playmaking at Syracuse, too. During the 2023-24 season, when Copeland emerged as an important secondary creator for the Orange, nearly 93 percent of his assists resulted in the same high-efficiency outcomes.

As a 1–2 combination, Copeland and McNeil make a lot of sense alongside each other. In theory, Copeland should simplify things for McNeil: run the floor, be ready to shoot, and he’ll find you. There’s plenty to address in Raleigh this offseason, but getting these two in sync should be a top priority.

McNeil received limited on-ball opportunities as a freshman. That said, there were flashes for the 6-foot-5 guard. Assuming McNeil steps into a larger role under Wade, he must be ready to slash downhill when defenders press him tightly. Opponents will prioritize taking away the jumper when defending him.

This was quite possibly McNeil’s most adventurous 1-on-1 drive during his first trip through the ACC, playing through the bump and drawing a foul on senior All-Conference guard Hunter Sallis (23).

When those kick-out passes come off an advantage, McNeil will have more catch-and-go opportunities next season. This could be a valuable pathway to generate additional rim attempts against a compromised defense. According to CBB Analytics, McNeil attempted just 12 field goals in the paint this season — but he converted 6-of-7 at the rim (85.7 FG%), several of which came off offensive rebounds.

Movement Shooting

One of the big swing skills for McNeil will be his ability to shoot off of hard movement. There are long-term reasons to buy McNeil’s ability as a catch-and-shoot bomber who can wreck havoc from the perimeter — running around screens, slipping different actions and relocating into open pockets of space. Unfortunately, with McNeil on the fringes of NC State’s rotation (just 75 field goal attempts in the 2024–25 season), those opportunities have been limited at the college level. Still, there’s some meaningful stuff to pull from.

On this possession against Wake Forest, NC State runs spread pick-and-roll with Michael O’Connell and Ben Middlebrooks. This is about as good of a spacing template as the Wolfpack — 30.8 3P% in the half court, per CBB Analytics (11th percentile) — could muster last season: Jayden Taylor and Dontrez Styles spaced to the weak side, with McNeil in the right corner. As Middlebrooks screened and rolled, Wake Forest puts two defenders on the ball, which creates a quick 2-on1 on the back side of the ball screen: Middlebrooks and McNeil vs. Cameron Hildreth.

Instead of rolling downhill or looking for an outlet pass on the short roll, Middlebrooks breaks off and sets a down screen near the right wing for McNeil, shaking up from the corner. Middlebrooks holds his screen and creates plenty of space for McNeil to let it rip.

During the late-stages of the blowout loss in Chapel Hill, NC State runs 5-out “Zoom” action for McNeil — a down screen into a handoff. Exiting the left corner, McNeil will come off a down screen from Styles into a dribble-handoff with Brandon Huntley-Hatfield.

Ian Jackson (11) works hard defensively, but he struggles to navigate screens and stay attached as a chase defender, often getting caught on screens. McNeil gains separation from Jackson thanks to screens set by Styles and BHH. With Ty Claude (0) in drop coverage and Jackson trailing, McNeil could have looked to shoot immediately off the catch. However, he takes a dribble and side-steps to find his rhythm and create more space from the recovering Jackson.

When McNeil has the time and space, he often uses a quick hop or step-in to get into rhythm for a catch-and-shoot 3-pointer.

On this possession, Miami's Matthew Cleveland (0) stops guarding McNeil (located in the right corner) and hangs in the restricted area to help on the empty-side pick-and-roll with O'Connell and Middlebrooks.

With Miami putting two defenders on the ball, the Hurricanes are exposed on the weak side. McNeil will shake up from the corner and Styles will set a pin-in screen on AJ Staton-McCray (11), which frees McNeil up for the catch-and-shoot 3-ball. After Jayden Taylor swings the ball over, McNeil uses a little hop to rhythm into his shot.

The more fluid that transfer becomes — from catch to release — the more dangerous McNeil will become from beyond the arc.

NC State runs screen-the-screener action for McNeil off this “Box” set baseline out-of-bounds play — with McNeil screening for Styles and then cutting to the corner off a screen from Middlebrooks. McNeil is open when he receives the pass, with his feet behind the line. However, he needs half a second to pivot and square up, which gives his defender just enough time to recover and contest the shot.

This type of detail matters less against mid-major opponents, but against ACC-caliber athletes and closeouts, every millisecond counts.

That said, as the season progressed and McNeil’s role expanded — 166 of his 208 minutes came after the calendar flipped to 2025 — he demonstrated the ability to get the ball out quicker when needed.

Here, NC State runs 5-out “Zoom” action, which flows into an angled ball screen with Marcus Hill, who kicks to McNeil in the weak-side corner. As Clemson’s defense rotates, McNeil gets into his gather and lets it rip over the closeout from 6-foot-10 Chauncey Wiggins (7).

McNeil misses this 3-point shot against SMU, but it’s a smooth gather off of a nice relocation effort, creating the kick-out option for Styles.

Similar to Terquavion Smith, Casey Morsell and DJ Horne, Keatts used McNeil’s shooting gravity to open things up in the half-court offense as a screener.

In the waining moments against Louisville, the Pack run screen-the-screener “Small 77” pick-and-roll: McNeil starts the possession in the bottom of the paint, with Ismael Diouf setting a screen for him. Instead of popping to the wing, though, McNeil will lift to set a run-out ball screen for Trey Parker, followed by another ball screen from Diouf.

As Parker dribbles left, Louisville has two defenders on the ball: Khani Rooths (9) and James Scott (0). With Diouf rolling to the rim, Terrance Edwards (5) must stick with him in the lane, leaving McNeil open above the arc. McNeil relocates back to the right slot and creates an easy kick-out opportunity for Parker.

Down at Miami, NC State runs another version of screen-the-screener pick-and-roll — this time out of a Horns set, with McNeil screening for BHH, who lifts to set the pick for MOC. After McNeil screens for BHH, he’ll leak back up to the wing in “roll-replace” action.

Jalil Bethea (3) gets caught watching the ball as McNeil relocates above the arc, creating another clean catch-and-shoot opportunity for McNeil.

Like many teams nowadays, Wade’s offense features plenty of guard-guard screening actions. In the 2025-26 season, these movement sets will be another way to tap into McNeil’s 3-point shot.

On-ball Upside

NC State's trip to the Bay Area in early February essentially sealed the fate of this season’s team, as they dropped winnable games at Cal and Stanford. They returned to Raleigh to face Louisville, who delivered the worst "Welcome Home!" present imaginable, scoring 1.32 points per possession.

Despite playing just five combined minutes against Cal and Stanford, the West Coast swing was a significant developmental moment for McNeil. Both teams use a lot of deep drop coverage when defending pick-and-rolls, positioning their centers well below the level of the screen to protect the rim. (Stanford also relied heavily on matchup zone defense this season.)

In these limited minutes, McNeil displayed a level of patience and physicality as a driver that I hadn’t seen much up to that point. When initiating pick-and-roll, he demonstrated a willingness to attack the space against drop coverage, dribbling off the ball screen and using his body to shield off the defender trying to fight over it.

Watch as McNeil traps Jeremiah Wilkinson (0) from Cal on this empty-side pick-and-roll, keeping him glued to his hip and away from the ball. This allowed McNeil to continue probing with the ball, getting closer to the rim.

According to CBB Analytics, McNeil drew only 14 fouls this season — nine shooting fouls and five on the floor. Starting with the Cal game on Feb. 5, McNeil drew nine fouls over the final 11 games: six shooting — including three and-one finishes — and three on the floor.

NC State runs more 5-out “Zoom” action for McNeil coming out of the right corner at Stanford, which flows into pick-and-roll with Diouf. Stanford’s backup center Aidan Cammann (52) applies drop coverage. Once again, McNeil attacks the space, getting Ryan Agarwal (11) on his hip and snaking back across the lane — dribbling laterally away from his original driving direction. This tactic creates separation from Agarwal and forces Cammann to step up, leaving Diouf alone on the dive.

This is solid pick-and-roll manipulation from McNeil, who takes what the defense gives him and forces a second defender to step in and stop the ball. When McNeil slows the tempo and plays through contact, he can create opportunities for his teammates.

Here’s NC State’s first game back after that road swing. Louisville is in drop coverage, with Scott positioned below the level of Middlebrooks’ screen. As McNeil dribbles off the pick, he immediately slows his handle, getting Edwards — an All-ACC guard in his fifth year of college hoops — on his hip, intending to keep him there. Louisville’s defenders stay home on NC State’s spot-up shooters, and Scott is positioned to defend the roll, leaving the possession in McNeil’s hands. With the closest defender behind him, McNeil showcases his touch and knocks down a floater.

As McNeil develops, he'll want to penetrate deeper with the ball against drop coverage. Ideally, the ball handler aims to make a decision at the last possible moment, forcing the drop center to choose — help over or stay with the roller — while getting closer to the rim.

One week later, it was more of the same: McNeil showcasing his patience and creativity as a driver in the late stages of a rout at UNC. With RJ Davis defending, McNeil again operates 5-out “Zoom” action, with Ven-Allen Lubin (22) in drop coverage. Similar to his exchange with Edwards, McNeil comes off and hits the brakes while maintaining his dribble. Lubin sinks as BHH rolls and McNeil finishes a runner through contact.

The touch McNeil displays on his floaters and runners is a positive indicator for his overall shooting projections.

From earlier in the performance at UNC: McNeil initiates more 5-out “Zoom” action. As McNeil comes out of the right corner, Jackson again gets caught up in the screens and McNeil uses this as an opportunity to get Jackson on his hip. McNeil quickly attacks the space and gets into the paint. Jackson scrambles to catch up and slams into McNeil as he stalls in the middle of the lane, creating the foul.

Working out of NC State’s “Weave” action, McNeil calls an audible. Instead of handing the ball back to Taylor, who would flow into a ball screen with BHH, McNeil fakes the dribble-handoff (DHO). This DHO "Keep" causes confusion in UNC’s defense: Seth Trimble (7) stays with Taylor, but Elliot Cadeau (3), expecting the DHO, switches out to guard Taylor, too. This mix-up leaves McNeil wide open for a dribble 3-pointer.

If NC State gets more of this creativity, forcefulness and space creation with the ball next season, combined with McNeil’s shot-making, there could be a potentially special offensive player in the making.

Connective Passing

Although McNeil didn't get to explore much with his handle as a freshman, he did show some impressive passing flashes off the catch, showcasing floor vision and quick decision-making.

As Middlebrooks posts up here against Virginia Tech, McNeil relocates from just outside the lane to the top of the key — as the Hokies send a double team at Middlebrooks, with the help coming from the baseline. When Middlebrooks kicks out to McNeil, it puts the Hokies into rotation. Hill is a non-shooter in the weak-side corner, but the Tech defenders don’t communicate the rotation. Both defenders run at Hill, which briefly leaves Dennis Parker Jr. unattended in the paint. McNeil wastes no time and snaps a pass into a tight window for a DPJ layup.

With Cooper Flagg (2) on the ball, Duke has Khaman Maluach (9) above the level of the screening, hedging out at O’Connell as he runs empty-side pick-and-roll with BHH. O’Connell gets off the ball and swings it to McNeil. As the defense rotates out, Maluach is still lifted, and McNeil quickly rifles a bounce pass that hits BHH on the move for a dunk.

McNeil’s processing speed pops when needing to make the next play ahead of a rotating defense. This may seem simple, but connective passing is hugely important for maintaining or building advantages in the half-court setting. McNeil finished his freshman year with 19 assists to only seven turnovers.

This pass is risky and a little off the mark, but it’s encouraging to see McNeil take some chances as a passer, too. From a developmental standpoint, offensive players should explore the studio space some when trying to make a play happen. This time, McNeil works as an outlet for another Middlebrooks post double, which turns into a late-clock 3-pointer for Styles.

Sneaky good on the glass

McNeil posted posted a usage rate of 24.1 percent during his debut season. He was stuck at the backend of NC State’s rotation, but when he played, he got busy. One of the ways McNeil inserted himself into the offense was with his handiwork on the glass: 3.3 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes.

To start the game against Wake Forest, NC State attacks the ball screen hedge with that same screen-the-screener action out of Horns and McNeil leaking back up the left wing. As Styles steps into a 3-point attempt, McNeil takes off and gets to the rim, outflanking Sallis for a contested rebound and a put-back 2.

These moments became more frequent for McNeil over the final month of the season. He showcased his motor along with some intriguing ball-tracking skills while scavenging for points.

O’Connell leads the break here against Louisville, kicking to Breon Pass on the left wing for a 3-point attempt. McNeil fills the right corner, but he never stops running as the ball goes in the other direction. No one from Louisville boxes McNeil out, and he gets right to the rim for a put-back dunk.

McNeil posted an offensive rebound rate of 9.3 percent as a freshman, which ranked in the 98th percentile for guards, according to CBB Analytics. The out-of-area rebounds are the most encouraging, though. McNeil’s feel for the game and compete level are on display as he flies in for put-back opportunities.

Offensive Role

Last month, I published a deep dive on Will Wade’s pick-and-roll offense and various 5-out sets at Pack Pride. Go check that out if you haven’t already and would like more information on Wade’s offense. As a true shooting guard with untapped on-ball potential, McNeil represents an upside play: he projects as a key floor spacer for NC State while also receiving a fair share of sets designed to showcase his playmaking ability.

McNeil should continue to see touches in 5-out “Zoom” action within Wade’s offense. While there are some similarities to standard sets, Wade often incorporates a flare screen on the opposite side of the floor, pulling potential help defenders out of the middle and creating both a clearer driving lane for the player coming off the handoff and a possible kick-out opportunity for a corner 3-ball.

In these looks, McNeil could fill several role, working as the ball handler in the “Zoom” action, or he could be the guard running off the flare screen. Given his 3-point shooting gravity, McNeil would also work well as the player setting the flare screen, which could cause some confusion for opposing defenses.

McNeese State’s 5-out offense clicked against Clemson in the Round 1 upset of the NCAA Tournament.

Sincere Parker (21) slips the flare screen here, and that action alone is enough to pull Jaeden Zackery (11) — Clemson’s top guard defender — out to the left wing and away from the middle. Small forward Brandon Murray (23) then dribbles off the DHO and attacks Clemson’s coverage in space, with no help defender and no extra hands at the nail.

There’s no weak-side flare on this possession. Instead, the “Zoom” action flows into an angled re-screen pick-and-roll opportunity. This is quality 5-out offense with Parker initiating: lift the defense, get two on the ball and find the open man.

Another go-to ball screen opportunity for 2-guards in Wade’s offense is his “Chin” pick-and-roll series.

To start, the 4 will set a down screen for the 2 or 3, who will lift up to the wing opposite of the 1 (Alyn Breed here against Alabama). The 1 will pass to the 2/3 and then shuffle cut toward the paint off of a back screen from the 5. After setting the back screen, the 5 will step up and set the ball screen for the 2/3. That’s the “Chin” action.

Alabama defends with deep drop coverage from backup center Aiden Sherrell (22). Parker uses the space to his advantage and gets to the midrange for a short pull-up jumper.

Here’s the same “Chin” set against UT Rio Grande Valley: back screen into a ball screen for Murray.

One of the best offensive players Wade coached at LSU was Cameron Thomas, who averaged 22.9 points per game for the Brooklyn Nets over the last two NBA seasons. During his one-and-done freshman year under Wade, Thomas ranked Top 60 nationally with a usage rate of 29.3 percent. Thomas initiated plenty of pick-and-roll and isolation offense, where he was a master at scoring in tough spots and drawing a ton of fouls: 6.5 per 40 minutes, according to KenPom. Thomas weighed 210 pounds as a freshman and he put it to use, playing a compact game when working 1-on-1.

McNeil and Thomas have some clear differences as players, and I don’t anticipate McNeil’s usage scaling to what Thomas had in Baton Rouge. However, both are sizable 2-guards who like to get shots up and can play off movement, which could help shape McNeil’s role next season.

Along with the meat-and-potatoes portion of Thomas’ offensive diet — the heavy amounts of on-ball creation — Wade found some funky ways to involve him off the ball, too, including the use of “Elevator Door” screens. This offensive tactic involves two off-ball players setting a double screen, after allowing the cutter to run between them. The cutter will slip through and the screeners will shift together to seal off the trailing defender.

From the 2021 SEC Tournament: LSU starts in a 5-out set with center Darius Days (4) in the middle of the floor and Thomas (24) in the right corner. Days will flip the ball to guard Erik Gaines (25) and cut to the left side of the floor, where he’ll stand next to power forward Trendon Watford (2). Point guard Javonte Smart (1) will wheel up the left side, working off Watford and Days and clearing to the top of the key. As Gaines swings to Smart, Thomas takes off and sprints from the right corner to the left wing — running between Days and Watford, who slide together, mimicking two elevator doors closing, and seal off Devo Davis (4) from Arkansas.

From earlier in the season against Auburn, here’s the same “Elevator Doors” set, although this time Thomas opts for the catch-and-shoot 3-point attempt.

Against Michigan in the 2021 NCAA Tournament: LSU comes out of a timeout right before halftime with another specialty play, again featuring the elevator doors for Thomas. This time, though, LSU starts with Iverson action — Aundre Hyatt (15) cuts across screens at the elbows from Days and Watford. Thomas starts the possession under the formation.

After Hyatt clears out, Thomas sprints up the middle of the lane as Watford and Days come together once again to form the elevator doors. Off the catch, Thomas flows into a pick-and-roll, gets a switch onto Franz Wagner (21) — now one of the NBA’s top young talents — and scores.

Let’s look at one more from the 2021-22 season. This is another after-timeout play against Ohio. LSU starts in a Horns set with Days and Efton Reid (15) at the two elbows. Gaines (2) enters the ball into Days and LSU speeds into “Floppy” action — single-double off-ball screens — which flows into another high handoff for Gaines, with the defense lifted. As Gaines dribbles left off of Reid’s DHO, Murray (0) performs a 45-degree cut, sliding off the wing and toward the rim, which pulls in another help defender. This opens the middle up for Gaines, with Mark Sears (1) before his time at Alabama, chasing him. Gaines engages the drop defense of Ben Vander Plas (5), who went on to transfer into Virginia, and creates an opening at the rim for Reid, the future Wake Forest Demon Deacon.

The Defense

Throughout the 2024–25 season, as NC State struggled to generate much in the half-court and McNeil spent most of his time glued to the bench, the go-to explanation for his limited minutes was his defense.

To be clear, Kevin Keatts — the one making those tough personnel decisions — has far more information than anyone outside the program. He’s also a proven coach and talent evaluator.

I fully acknowledge an information gap here. I’m not privy to everything the staff sees, nor do I know the exact nuances and preferences for a team’s particular defensive scheme — regardless of how much I study the film and chart things out. But whenever McNeil did get on the floor, I made it a point to watch his defense closely — on the ball and off. My honest takeaway: it really didn’t seem that bad. McNeil has things to work on, for sure, but there are reasons to be reasonably optimistic about his defensive approach.

ACC guards looked to isolate McNeil in space, targeting him 1-on-1. That included quicker players like Georgia Tech’s Naithan George (0), who, in transition, uses a crossover to create separation, get downhill and draw a foul on McNeil.

Cameron Hildreth (0) from Wake Forest isn’t the zippiest driver, but he’s decisive and strong with the basketball. McNeil does well here to tag Reid (4) on the roll and close back to Hildreth, but the veteran guard attack his top foot and drives by him.

However, the 6-foot-5 McNeil isn’t an undersized guard and he’s a pretty good athlete. He has enough size to switch around, defend multiple positions and at least hang in space. A player like Hildreth can outmuscle him, but McNeil’s length gives him a baseline level of usefulness along the perimeter.

Duke runs its “Wide” action in early offense for Sion James (14). McNeil is matched up with James (6-5, 225), a snarling downhill driver who also happens to have, like, 40 pounds on his younger counterpart. James curls the screen from Maluach and gets deep into the paint; however, McNeil stays with him and contests the shot, making him finish over length.

Here, McNeil closes out under control against All-ACC guard Chase Hunter (1) in the right corner, denying a potential catch-and-shoot 3-pointer. Hunter is able to create some space late in the clock for a step-back 3-point attempt, but even then McNeil still applies a decent contest.

Similar to most young players, there were moments when McNeil — as a help defender — was caught ball-watching or out of position.

As SMU runs empty-corner pick-and-roll on the right side of the floor, McNeil becomes the back-side help defender, tasked with handling Matt Cross (33) in the corner and Kario Oquendo (8) on the wing. McNeil gets lost in space, stuck between the two in no-man’s land, and Oquendo cuts in front of him for a layup.

On other occasions, McNeil missed help responsibilities or struggled to pick his spots. As Bethea shot fakes on the left wing and gets Hill off of his feet, McNeil peels off the strong-side corner to help. Bethea sees this and kicks to Cleveland, who drives baseline and picks up a foul on McNeil.

Generally speaking, defenders assigned to the strong-side corner aren’t supposed to help off their man, but you can at least understand why McNeil felt compelled to go after the ball here: for a moment, Bethea looks like he has a clean line to the rim. Hill is the player most at fault for the defensive breakdown.

More than anything, though, I don’t think McNeil’s in-game lapses were debilitating, nor did they came from a lack of effort. McNeil played hard. In fact, I think he showed some nice defensive instincts at time, along with good hustle.

Early on at Duke, Hill is getting punished in the paint by the burly Kon Knueppel (7). As Knueppel lifts for a short jumper, McNeil — after navigating the ghost screen from Mason Gillis (18) — makes a play and swats the future lottery pick from behind.

Louisville runs drag pick-and-roll with Edwards, Aboubacar Traore (25) and an empty corner. McNeil starts on the right wing, defending Chucky Hepburn (24). Middlebrooks hedges the ball screen and Edwards outlets to Traore on the short roll. As Traore drives, Styles must slide over and help at the rim, which means Pass needs to come off the wing to help on J’Vonne Hadley (1). This leaves Reyne Smith (6), one of the best shooters in the country, all alone in the right corner. Traore tries to kick a pass out in his direction, but McNeil rotates along the back side and intercepts.

This is a rough 10-second stretch for Boston College, but right after O’Connell and McNeil turn an easy steal into transition points, McNeil hustles back to the floor, deflects the inbound pass and sets up Taylor for an open 3-point attempt.

On/Off Numbers

Even with the occasional defensive lapse, there’s a strong case that McNeil should have seen more playing time — especially given NC State’s struggles in the half-court offense. He wouldn’t have been a cure-all, but having another player on the floor who can shoot from deep, move the ball, crash the glass and create his own shot could have made a significant difference

In the 208 minutes with McNeil on the floor, NC State was outscored by one point and posted an offensive rating of 116 points per 100 possessions (good), while allowing 116.3 points per 100 possessions (less good), according to CBB Analytics. The Wolfpack essentially broke even in McNeil’s minutes.

It’s a small sample, but with McNeil on the court, NC State’s 3-point attempt rate and assist rate jumped dramatically, too: 46.5 percent of their field goal attempts were from beyond the arc, resulting in an averaging of 27.7 3-point attempts per 40 minutes (33.3 3P%). The Wolfpack also assisted on 62.8 percent of their field goals, a very high rate for an offense that produced a lot of unassisted buckets due to its reliance on pick-and-roll initiation. In the minutes without McNeil, NC State assisted on only 49.1 percent of its field goals.

Digging further: in the 1,037 minutes McNeil spent on the bench across all competition, NC State’s three-point attempt rate dipped to 34 percent, with the team averaging just 19.5 three-point attempts per 40 minutes and shooting 31.8 percent from beyond the arc. The Wolfpack struggled with perimeter shooting all season; without McNeil on the floor, they managed only 106.3 points per 100 possessions.

With McNeil on the floor, only 17.7 percent of NC State’s field goal attempts came at the rim, but the Pack shot 69.1 percent on those looks, which is outstanding. In lineups with McNeil sitting, the Pack got to the rim more frequently — 23.3 percent of their field goal attempts — but shot a lower number (62.5 FG% rim), per CBB Analytics.

Against ACC opponents, State was -10 with an offensive rating of 115.3 points per 100 possessions and a defensive rating of 119.0 points per 100 possessions with McNeil on the floor (169 minutes). When McNeil sat against ACC opposition (636 minutes), State was outscored by 109 points, posting an offensive rating of 102.5 points per 100 possessions — 16.5 points per 100 possessions fewer than the minutes with McNeil on — and a defensive rating of 113.4 points per 100 possessions.

This is a mouthful of numbers, but here’s the upshot: NC State was more efficient offensively and shot 3-pointers at a higher rate with McNeil on the court. He’s not the only player responsible for that uptick, but his shooting and passing had an impact.

There’s certainly some luck and randomness involved, but O’Connell, Styles, Parker, Hill, Middlebrooks, and BHH were all more efficient during limited minutes with McNeil on the floor. Below is a look at their shooting splits and assist numbers in ACC play, comparing performance with and without McNeil.

Now, tontext matters here. There’s a significant discrepancy in minutes with McNeil on versus off the floor — he averaged just 8.7 minutes per game for the season, including 10.5 per game in ACC play. It’s fair to wonder how things might have stabilized if McNeil had logged more minutes. With a larger sample, it’s possible those lineups wouldn’t have been as effective offensively. However, the efficiency wasn’t driven by unsustainable 3-point shooting. In fact, while the Wolfpack took a higher percentage of their shots from beyond the arc with McNeil on the court, they connected on just 33.3 percent of those attempts.

The 2024-25 season is now behind us, a chapter that's closed. What matters now is that NC State and McNeil have a fresh opportunity ahead. With a new coach and system in Raleigh, McNeil is poised to be one of the top returning talents in the ACC.